Population Dynamics in the 21st Century

Over the past 25 years, fertility has declined rapidly in many low- and middle-income countries. This trend is part of a process called the “demographic transition,” during which populations move from high fertility and high mortality rates to low fertility and low mortality rates. These changes are mainly driven by improvements in education, health, and income.

Although the fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa has been declining in recent years, it still remains higher than any other region in the world, despite improvements in health and increasing education and incomes. Furthermore, there is significant variation in fertility rates across different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, and some countries still have very high fertility rates. For example, the fertility rate in Niger, the country with the highest fertility rate in the world, was 6.9 births per woman in 2020.

There is a large literature on fertility transitions and their causes worldwide, yet there is only limited evidence on the causes of recent population dynamics, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.

With this project, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of population dynamics in sub-Saharan African countries by comparing the roles of economic development, public policies, and women’s empowerment as drivers of fertility rates.

Researchers: Kenneth Harttgen, Isabel Günther, Nicolas Büttner